Analysts discuss the May 2025 Philippine midterms: Electoral dynamics amidst intense Marcos-Duterte clan rivalry

The event, co-hosted by the ANU Philippines Institute and the Department of Political and Social Change, explored the collapse of the once-powerful Uniteam alliance and its profound effects on voters, institutions, and the digital campaign landscape.

Just three years earlier, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte had swept to power in a historic 2022 landslide. That partnership has since unraveled spectacularly. In February 2025, the Marcos-aligned House impeached Duterte after allegations she had plotted to assassinate the president, first lady, and House Speaker Martin Romualdez. The following month, former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested on an Interpol warrant and now faces trial before the International Criminal Court for thousands of drug war killings. With Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial scheduled to open in July, the family rivalry loomed over the 12 May midterm polls, in which more than 18,000 posts were contested nationwide.

Panelists traced different facets of this high-stakes contest. Emeritus Professor Paul Hutchcroft outlined the long arc of Marcos–Duterte relations, from Rodrigo Duterte’s early ties with Ferdinand Marcos Sr. through the rise and fall of the Uniteam alliance. Professor Ronald Holmes examined how the feud reshaped political allegiances and electoral outcomes, arguing that impeachment moves and Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC trial fueled public sympathy for the Dutertes and blunted Marcos’s midterm gains. From Manila, Professor Cleo Calimbahin assessed how the Commission on Elections managed the vote, highlighting technical improvements but pointing to ongoing challenges with accessibility, secrecy of the ballot, and the handling of disinformation. Associate Professor Ross Tapsell turned to the digital battlefield, where pro-Marcos and pro-Duterte forces are now locked in an arms race of AI-driven trolls, TikTok influencers, and emotionally charged online spectacles.

Chaired by ANU PhD candidate Mary Joyce Bulao, the wide-ranging discussion underscored how the unraveling of a once-united dynasty defined both the conduct and the outcomes of the 2025 midterms. The full recording is now available online. We would like to thank our esteemed speakers for their involvement and valuable insights.